Georgette Could Become a Hurricane to the West of Mexico and California

Mexico (HDW) August 29, 2004 - GEORGETTE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A STRONG CLUSTER OF CONVECTION BUT
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME MORE EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT
3.0 FROM TAFB AND AFWA...BUT HAVE FALLEN TO 2.5 FROM SAB. GIVEN
THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF GEORGETTE
SINCE THE LAST PACKAGE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT
UNTIL THERE IS MORE CONSENSUS FOR BRINGING IT DOWN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9. THIS IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BUT ONLY BECAUSE A SLIGHT REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER WAS
REQUIRED. REGARDLESS...GEORGETTE HAS BEEN ON TRACK AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO ACCELERATE TO THE WEST BY 24-48 HOURS ONCE THE CONVECTION
DISSIPATES AND THE LEFTOVER SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS STEERED BY LOWER
LEVEL FLOW. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST
48 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDN WHICH JOGS GEORGETTE ABOUT 1 OR 2
DEGREES FARTHER SOUTH. AFTER 48 HOURS THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE BUT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS A DUE WESTWARD MOTION DURING
DISSIPATION...FOLLOWING CLOSELY TO THE GFS AND PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE PASSED ABOUT 80 NM NORTH OF A BUOY WHICH IS
REPORTING A SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 26C. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY
PARALLELING THE STRONGEST SST GRADIENT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AROUND 24-25C THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY
CLOSE AGREEMENT FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND BOTH WEIGH HEAVILY ON
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE GFS...THIS MODEL IS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR
DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM WITHIN 72 HOURS WITH A REMNANT LOW BEYOND 4
DAYS.

FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 19.3N 120.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 19.6N 121.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 19.9N 123.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 20.2N 125.8W 35 KT
48HR VT 31/1200Z 20.5N 128.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 20.5N 132.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 02/1200Z 20.5N 137.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 03/1200Z 20.5N 141.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW