National Weather Service Predicts Above-Normal 2004 Atlantic
Hurricane Season
Silver Spring, MD (HDW) May 17, 2004 - NOAA forecasters
are predicting an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. At a news conference
Monday in Houston, Texas, NOAA officials said the season outlook is for
12 to 15 tropical storms, with six to eight systems becoming hurricanes,
and two to four of those major hurricanes.
Homeland Security’s Federal Emergency Management Agency officials
joined NOAA in urging Gulf and Atlantic Coast states to be prepared for
an active season, which runs from June 1 through November 30.
“The forecast is the result of thousands of hours of work by NOAA
and its partners,” said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher,
Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.
“NOAA investments in high speed computers, improved weather modeling
and extensive Earth observation systems enable our scientists and forecasters
to gather and synthesize information and begin the process of preparing
the public to take action.”
“NOAA’s 2004 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a
50 percent probability of an above-normal season, a 40 percent probability
of a near-normal season and only a 10 percent chance of a below-normal
season,” said retired Air Force Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, director
of the NOAA National Weather Service. Similar seasons averaged two to
three landfalling hurricanes in the continental United States, and one
to two hurricanes in the region around the Caribbean Sea.
“Last year three tropical storms and three hurricanes affected the
United States. Hurricane Isabel caused 17 deaths and more than $3 billion
in damages. We cannot stop these storms, but we can take steps to limit
our vulnerability. Awareness and preparedness for hurricanes, and even
tropical storms, and knowing what to do to mitigate their devastating
effects, are our best defense,” said undersecretary for Homeland
Security Michael Brown.
In the central Pacific, NOAA forecasters are predicting four to five tropical
cyclones, which is typical for that area. The central Pacific hurricane
season also runs from June 1 to November 30.
The Atlantic hurricane outlook reflects a likely continuation of above-normal
activity that began in 1995. Since then all but two Atlantic hurricane
seasons (the El Niño years of 1997 and 2002) have been above normal.
NOAA scientists are predicting ENSO neutral conditions (neither El Niño
nor La Niña) through July. There is a likelihood these conditions
will continue through the peak August-October months of the hurricane
season. The main factors in the above-normal outlook are the active phase
of the Atlantic multi-decadal signal and a continuation of warmer-than-normal
ocean temperatures across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions are
associated with circulation patterns that favor an above-normal hurricane
season.
“Here in Houston, people know all too well that even without land-falling
hurricanes, tropical storms can cause damage and death,” cautioned
Max Mayfield, director of the NOAA National Hurricane Center in Miami,
Fla. “Preparedness pays off in safety.”
“Preparedness is planning in advance by every city, every business,
every family and every individual, and then putting those plans into action
if a hurricane threatens landfall near you,” Mayfield said. ”We
are here in Houston this year to encourage coastal communities and families
to prepare now,” Mayfield said.
The 2004 Atlantic hurricane outlook is a joint product of scientists at
the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the Hurricane Research Division and
the National Hurricane Center.
